Maths Statistics

Sample size calculator

Confidence level
%
Margin of error
%
Expected proportion
%
50% is the safest assumption
Population size
Leave 0 for a very large population
Sample size needed 385
z² × p(1−p) ÷ margin²
Before population adjustment 385
Critical z value 1.96
Margin of error 5 %
Confidence 95 %
385 gives ±5% at 95% confidence

A 95% confidence level with a ±5% margin and no assumption about the answer needs 385 responses, whatever the population — and 384 is the figure most often quoted because of a rounding convention. It is why so many surveys land at "about 400 respondents". Assuming 50% is deliberately the worst case: any other expected proportion needs fewer.

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Sample size for a proportion is z² × p(1−p) ÷ margin². At 95% confidence with a ±5% margin and no prior expectation, that is 385 responses — regardless of population size unless the population is small.

How to work out sample size

1 Choose a confidence level, usually 95%.
2 Choose a margin of error you can live with.
3 Leave the expected proportion at 50% unless you have good prior information.
4 Add a population size only if it is under a few thousand.

Sample size answers only sampling error — the randomness of who happened to respond. It says nothing at all about the far larger problems of non-response bias, a badly worded question, or a sample frame that misses the people you care about. A survey of 10,000 self-selected website visitors is worse evidence than 400 properly randomised responses, and no sample size calculation will reveal that. The number here is necessary and a long way from sufficient.

Questions

385 for ±5% at 95% confidence. About 1,067 for ±3%, and 9,604 for ±1%.

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